The downgrade of South Africa’s sovereignty credit rating or credit worthiness to junk status by rating agencies such as Standard and Poor’s is a big blow for our country’s fragile economy, especially for the poor and the downtrodden. In addition, this has come at the backdrop of the announcement that our country’s economy has not performed well in two consecutive quarters, which has led the country to recession. The impact of these announcements is rife and will have a negative impact on interest rates, inflation rates and economic well-being in general.
Governments throughout the world finance their spending from two sources of funds; that is, taxes and borrowing (loans). Taxes can be generated through ordinary citizens and businesses, whilst borrowing can be done through financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund(IMF), the World Bank and other multinational banks such as BRICS.
In a country like South Africa where the tax base has dwindled due to high unemployment rate amongst other things, the government is often faced with budget deficit which leaves them with no choice, but to borrow money to service some of its debts and spending from the financial institutions mentioned above.
Now how does the credit downgrade or junk status affect the poor South Africans?
The rating agencies’ role is to determine the probability whether a country will be able to service its debt or payback the borrowed money to the lender. After considering all the necessary data, a country can be said to be either low/high risk in terms of borrowing. In our government’s case, rating agencies have projected our country as high risk.
This then translates to higher interest rates charged by financial institutions on our government. Furthermore, if the government spends more money on servicing a debt, it impacts its spending on capital, infrastructural projects and social grants to mention but a few examples. The reserve banks also responds by charging a higher repo rate to commercial banks for borrowing and the commercial banks in turn charge higher interest rates to individuals who take out loans. The rand also loses its value and thus products and services become more expensive and unfordable for the poor.
In essence it becomes more expensive to take out mortgage bonds, buy properties, repay furniture debts, to buy food and other necessities. The value of the discretionary income gets reduced greatly thus economic wellbeing is affected.
However, there are many ways the government can mitigate or overcome this crisis:
Firstly, in a short run the government and the state must take a central role in stimulating economic growth by increasing its spending to increase aggregate demand and stimulate production. This will result in possibly more job opportunities, wage increase and spending.
Secondly, the government should immediately establish a sovereign wealth fund. profits and interests gained from this fund will be re invested into the country’s economy and it will mitigate excessive borrowing. Thirdly, the government should engage in massive industrialization as this would result in improved production and Net Capital Outflow as well as Net Exports. Also, the government should improve its efforts on creating demand for local products.

